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Casino Theoretical Win

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  1. Casino Theoretical Win Definition
  2. Casino Theoretical Win Calculation

The games' odds may be reported as a theoretical RTP percentage, but they could also be reported as a ratio, similar to the way lottery games declare chances of winning a prize. Either way, these games don't have to tell you how often to expect to win a prize of any amount. Theoretical = (Average bet x hours played x hands per hour) x (House Edge / 100) $750 Ave. X 28 hours X 60 hands X.015 = 18,900 is your theoretical From that theoretical we consider 35% as your earned comps. 18,900 X.35 = $6,615 This is how we handle comps when using theoretical, we also consider 10% of loss, whatever is higher. There have been reports in the past that MGM will hack down offers for players who have won a lot of money in recent visits, only restoring them if they lose money later. So MGM does seem to put more weight on the win/loss amounts. What to Expect From Comps. Generally a casino will provide offers that are roughly 20-30% of expected loss.

Kindred Group, which was formerly known as Unibet Group Plc, is an online gambling service provider. The Company provides sports betting, poker, casino, and other Internet games. Kindred Group serves customers across the globe. Online gambling fraud. 888 holdings is one of the most popular online gaming operators, which operates 888 sports, casino, poker, and bingo brands. Since its launch in 2008, 888 Sports has been successful in establishing a strong presence in the online sports betting market. This question is a little subjective and it is just like asking for the largest betting companies. It depends on what parameters are used to define the word 'best'. The best online betting site for you depends on your needs as a punter. If you are looking for the best online casino, then 888 might be the best online gaming site for you. Online gambling customers also tend to be very price-savvy, meaning that online casinos have to compete in price to attract top customers. That leads online casinos to offer blackjack variants that pay nearly 100 percent back and the highest-paying versions of other popular games like roulette and craps. Remember, the house still has an edge.

The statistical advantage that the casino has in each game, and each bet, is called the house edge. This theoretical advantage the casino holds over the player on any single bet is what makes the game gambling, for the outcome is unknown, and regardless of who holds the edge, either party may win at any one time.

How often is it you meet a 3rd party service provider or even an agency that doesn't know your lingo? ADT, theo win, slot occupancy – these are just few terms that are tossed around daily by casino executives, marketing teams and database marketing departments. We get it, we know your language, and we're here to help.

If you're new to gaming or training new employees, please refer to the below glossary of casino marketing terms. This list should help make meetings and casual conversations with casino industry veterans less stressful.

  • A
    Acquisition
    The process of acquiring new guests. In gaming this refers to gathering new player's club members.
    Active
    Player's club members that have played within a certain time period, usually in the last 12 months.
    Actual Win
    The monetary amount the casino actually wins from a player. There can be a large discrepancy from theoretical win (Twin) if someone hits a jackpot or if there is a savvy table games player. Also known as 'casino win.'
    ADT
    Average Daily Theoretical win (See Theoretical win).
  • B
    Bonus Points
    Points that are not earned but rather awarded based on a promotion or event.
  • C
    Carded Play
    The portion of total gaming revenue that was tracked using player's club cards.
    Casino Win
    The monetary amount the casino actually wins from a player. There can be a large discrepancy from theoretical win (Twin) if someone hits a jackpot or if there is a savvy table games player. Also known as 'actual win.'
    Coin-in
    Total bets cycled through a machine that includes both cash-in and credits played. Also referred to as ‘bet,' ‘handle' or ‘wager.' Total coin-in reflects both carded and non-carded coin-in. Carded coin-in reflects only coin-in generated using a players club card.
    Core Program
    Regular monthly life-cycle program. (Acquisition, Loyalty, Downtrender, Recapture, Birthday, etc.)
    Criteria
    The selected parameters that need to be met to receive an offer or enter a tier or segment.
  • D
    Database
    All player data collected through the player's club, including gaming data, demographics,preferences, etc.
    Demographics
    Characteristics such as annual income, age, sex, distance to the casino, etc., which can be used to project or influence behavior.
    Direct Mail
    Mail programs in which offers are targeted to guests based on specific, pre-selected criteria with a specific marketing goal (acquisition, retention, reactivation, etc.). Can include email as well.
    Downtrender
    A player's club member whose current play is lower based on Twin per month or quarter than it has been in the past. This can be attributed to a loss in frequency or spend.
  • F
    Frequency
    How frequently (often) a player visits and has activity. Trips in a distinct time period can also define this.
  • G
    Goal
    The purpose toward which an endeavor is directed. The state of affairs that a plan is intended to achieve and that (when achieved) terminates behavior intended to achieve it; 'the ends justify the means.' Most gaming program goals involve Acquisition, Retention/Loyalty, Stretch, Recapture.
  • H
    Hold
    The amount the game or group of games made for the organization. This is based on game type, skill level, odds and system settings.
    Hotel Occupancy
    The amount of rooms occupied/sold expressed in a percentage of those available.
  • I
    Incremental Win
    The difference between win that normally would have occurred based on a guest's RFM score (see RFM definition below) and win when provided with a stimulus (i.e.: a coupon).
  • K
    Key Metrics
    Identified areas of measurement that are considered high priority in analyzing operational performance.
  • L
    Layering
    Creating offers and promotions in such a way as to allow players to redeem multiple things in one trip/day.
  • M
    Marketing
    Everything involved in the movement or sale of goods.
    Marketing Mix
    The percentages and dollars budgeted to each sub department in the overall marketing department.
    Market Share
    The amount of Guests that patronize our casino vs. visiting other casinos in the area.
    Member File
    The entire database of player's club members; all enrolled members including active and non-active.
    Modeling
    Identifying particular demographics that model a particular behavior such as gaming characteristics. Used primarily in determining acquisition efforts.
  • N
    New Members
    New patrons joining the player's club database.
    Non-Active/Inactive
    Player's club members on our member file who have not played within a specified time period.
  • O
    Offer Redemption Percentage
    The quantity of players that redeem a specific offer expressed against the total number of offers distributed. (total offers redeemed / total offers issued = offer redemption percentage)
  • P
    Player Development
    This definition varies widely; it is used to describe the internal department and functionality of casino hosts. In actuality, it is everything involved in increasing loyalty and therefore the RFM of each player. This includes one-to-one service, personalized benefits, direct mail offers and copy, etc.
    Player Type
    Usually used as a stratification tool based on distance of residence or by arrival type. Examples include local, junket (bus), group (convention), destination, etc.
    Postforma
    A document that measures the profitability of a specific program. This includes all program-specific expenses and revenue. Preforma is a similar document that is used for forecasting a program's profitability.
    Preforma
    A document that projects the profitability of a specific program. This includes all program-specific expenses and forecasted revenue. Postforma is a similar document that is used for measuring acutal profitability of a program.
    Profit Margin
    The percentage of expense compared to revenue. Net Revenue / Gross Revenue = X%
  • R
    Reactivation
    The process of attracting guests who have not played for an extended period of time, but at one point were active.
    Recency
    A method of measurement that identifies how recently a wager or purchase has been made.
    Response Rate
    The quantity of players who responded to an offer expressed against the total group of players issued offer(s). (total player responders / total number of players who received offer(s) = response rate)
    Retention
    The process of retaining current guests on the member file. The period of time used depends on the overall RFM of the member file. This sometimes means re-activating members from the member file that have become inactive. Reactivating members is 1/3 of the cost of Acquisition.
    RFM
    Recency, Frequency, Spend. A common method of assessing value of customers through recency, frequency and spend. Spend refers not only to the wager amount but also the items/services purchased.
  • S
    Script or Point Redemption
    The financial term for the cost of the cash back redemption. It is generally one of the larger expense items.
    Segments
    Defined groups within the database based on recent play and used to determine the offers the patron will qualify for.
    Share
    The portion of the spending that occurs at our facility vs. other entertainment organizations.
    Slot Occupancy
    A plan of action intended to accomplish a specific goal, using all the forces to execute approved plans as effectively as possible.
    Stratification
    To divide guests into a series of graded statuses or classes; i.e. dividing the database into tiered segments based on player type, etc.
  • T
    Tactical (Tactical Execution)
    An expedient for achieving a goal; a maneuver of less long-term significance than strategic operations or strategy.
    Theoretical Win (or Theo Win or Twin)
    The amount that the casino should win in theory, based on hold percentage and the random number generator or game type/odds. (coin-in x hold = theoretical win)
    Tiers
    Most often used to describe the defined groups within the player's club structure based on play and used to determine player's club benefits.
    Trip(s)/Days
    The frequency measure used in gaming. A defined period of time that starts when the player's club card has been inserted and there has been play. The length of a trip and associated parameters vary widely.
mds
So a very open Casino host answered a question I directly asked him..
Blackjack at .015? 60 hands an hour? Pretty fair?
HOST:
I will use the following theoretical formula:
Theoretical = (Average bet x hours played x hands per hour) x (House Edge / 100)
$750 Ave. X 28 hours X 60 hands X .015 = 18,900 is your theoretical
From that theoretical we consider 35% as your earned comps. 18,900 X .35 = $6,615
This is how we handle comps when using theoretical, we also consider 10% of loss, whatever is higher.
This figures are based on 4 hours of play a day, an average of $ 750 and at the game of Black Jack.
Results vary depending of game, time and average bet.
geoff
This is about the average to expect. Depending on the property they'll either use the actual loss rate of the blackjack table you play at or they'll use the best rate in the casino (usually the high limit table which the .015 is). 60 Hands an hour is a bit on the low side, but again they want to get as much out as possible.
AcesAndEights
.015? Huh? What am I missing here?
'So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust.' -ontariodealer
odiousgambit

.015? Huh? What am I missing here?

Casino Theoretical Win Definition


wondering the same thing
Quote: WoO link, bottom of page

Blackjack - 70 hands/hr at 0.75% (for comps)


http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/house-edge/
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: 'Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!' She is, after all, stone deaf. .. Arnold Snyder
Casino math theoretical win
FleaStiff
The formula seems correct though that 0.15 probably means you were at a very favorable blackjack game in a HIGH LIMIT room.
MOST casinos focus on your 'THEO' and you should always know what your ACTUAL theo is, since their records reflect their impressions and estimates about your 'theo'.
MOST casinos base comps on your theoretical value (ie, expected losses) and only adjust this figure for massive actual losses and less often for massive actual wins. They focus on what you risked rather than how you actually did. Since your long term value to the casino is what you able and willing to RISK, not your personal variance in the short term. The casino focuses on your long term value to them and protects that value by short term actions to keep you happy.
Casinos will generally sweeten your comps a bit for a massive win so as to make you really want to come back. Most casinos will sweeten comps a bit if you had a very impressive and rapid loss so as to make the rest of your stay relatively pleasant particularly if you have a spouse or spouse equivalent with you who expect fancy restaurants rather than fast food joints. However, actual results have to be really spectacular (either as win or loss) before they will depart from their standard formula.
BleedingChipsSlowly
Interesting thread, thanks for starting it, mds. 'Theo' is a mystical thing hosts hint at but never discuss directly with clients; at least that's how it is where I go. I have heard the 'four hours of play a day' mentioned many times over the years. That seems to be the gold standard for defining serious customers. That is, I believe the play-time parameter in the formula is regarded as more important that it's mathematical weight when hosts evaluate a customer. I have tried to educate some folks about how they are evaluated. They whine about how much money they have lost, thinking that is the only measure of worth. My standard line is, 'They only care about how much you bet, your luck or lack of it is your problem, not theirs.' That reasoning is seldom believed.
'You don't bring a bone saw to a negotiation.' - Robert Jordan, former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia
CrystalMath
Actually, 0.015 is 1.5%, which is rather high.
MangoJ

MOST casinos base comps on your theoretical value (ie, expected losses) and only adjust this figure for massive actual losses and less often for massive actual wins. They focus on what you risked rather than how you actually did. Since your long term value to the casino is what you able and willing to RISK, not your personal variance in the short term. The casino focuses on your long term value to them and protects that value by short term actions to keep you happy.


Although the comps should based on expected loss rather than actual losses - the house does it for different reasons than stated above. If comps are based on actual losses, the house is widely open for systematic exploitation.
mds

Interesting thread, thanks for starting it, mds. 'Theo' is a mystical thing hosts hint at but never discuss directly with clients; at least that's how it is where I go. I have heard the 'four hours of play a day' mentioned many times over the years. That seems to be the gold standard for defining serious customers. That is, I believe the play-time parameter in the formula is regarded as more important that it's mathematical weight when hosts evaluate a customer. I have tried to educate some folks about how they are evaluated. They whine about how much money they have lost, thinking that is the only measure of worth. My standard line is, 'They only care about how much you bet, your luck or lack of it is your problem, not theirs.' That reasoning is seldom believed.


Theoretical
Win
FleaStiff
The formula seems correct though that 0.15 probably means you were at a very favorable blackjack game in a HIGH LIMIT room.
MOST casinos focus on your 'THEO' and you should always know what your ACTUAL theo is, since their records reflect their impressions and estimates about your 'theo'.
MOST casinos base comps on your theoretical value (ie, expected losses) and only adjust this figure for massive actual losses and less often for massive actual wins. They focus on what you risked rather than how you actually did. Since your long term value to the casino is what you able and willing to RISK, not your personal variance in the short term. The casino focuses on your long term value to them and protects that value by short term actions to keep you happy.
Casinos will generally sweeten your comps a bit for a massive win so as to make you really want to come back. Most casinos will sweeten comps a bit if you had a very impressive and rapid loss so as to make the rest of your stay relatively pleasant particularly if you have a spouse or spouse equivalent with you who expect fancy restaurants rather than fast food joints. However, actual results have to be really spectacular (either as win or loss) before they will depart from their standard formula.
BleedingChipsSlowly
Interesting thread, thanks for starting it, mds. 'Theo' is a mystical thing hosts hint at but never discuss directly with clients; at least that's how it is where I go. I have heard the 'four hours of play a day' mentioned many times over the years. That seems to be the gold standard for defining serious customers. That is, I believe the play-time parameter in the formula is regarded as more important that it's mathematical weight when hosts evaluate a customer. I have tried to educate some folks about how they are evaluated. They whine about how much money they have lost, thinking that is the only measure of worth. My standard line is, 'They only care about how much you bet, your luck or lack of it is your problem, not theirs.' That reasoning is seldom believed.
'You don't bring a bone saw to a negotiation.' - Robert Jordan, former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia
CrystalMath
Actually, 0.015 is 1.5%, which is rather high.
MangoJ

MOST casinos base comps on your theoretical value (ie, expected losses) and only adjust this figure for massive actual losses and less often for massive actual wins. They focus on what you risked rather than how you actually did. Since your long term value to the casino is what you able and willing to RISK, not your personal variance in the short term. The casino focuses on your long term value to them and protects that value by short term actions to keep you happy.


Although the comps should based on expected loss rather than actual losses - the house does it for different reasons than stated above. If comps are based on actual losses, the house is widely open for systematic exploitation.
mds

Interesting thread, thanks for starting it, mds. 'Theo' is a mystical thing hosts hint at but never discuss directly with clients; at least that's how it is where I go. I have heard the 'four hours of play a day' mentioned many times over the years. That seems to be the gold standard for defining serious customers. That is, I believe the play-time parameter in the formula is regarded as more important that it's mathematical weight when hosts evaluate a customer. I have tried to educate some folks about how they are evaluated. They whine about how much money they have lost, thinking that is the only measure of worth. My standard line is, 'They only care about how much you bet, your luck or lack of it is your problem, not theirs.' That reasoning is seldom believed.


I get that all the time from friends. They lose 3000 in an hour or less and want 3 nights at RFB or RFBI.. Just doesn't work that way. Most importantly, to the Casino it's about hours played. As you put in more play time that's when you will lose. You will get comped more but you will lose at the tables. In other words, just pay for your room food and beverage yourself! Why lose 4000 at the tables to get a 200 a night room comped? Short term winners and long term losers. Except if you are an AP. Should be opposite.
FleaStiff

Although the comps should based on expected loss rather than actual losses - the house does it for different reasons than stated above. If comps are based on actual losses, the house is widely open for systematic exploitation.

Actual losses if rather whopping or early in one's stay will merely 'sweeten' the comps that are based on a player's theo. The sweetener is modest since in most circumstances only Theo is considered.

Casino Theoretical Win Calculation


Time at Table can be three hours but it seems four is simply more impressive by a profound amount and it is rumored that at the Venetian the four hour mark is critical.
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